← Yeti Webcam Weekly 3/28/2024
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 3/28/2024
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-2-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1305
· range 1237–1373
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1252
Q3 1414
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
